The bookies and the British election

By Chris Patten

London – I used to be considered a pretty good forecaster of British and other countries’ elections. I was, after all, once a party chairman.

I can now confess my method. It was not based on any novel political insight. I did not have a magic algorithm relating economic factors to voting intentions – though I do think that there is some correlation between net disposable income and how people normally vote. But my own technique, which I still use, has proved more reliable than even poring over the political entrails in every constituency.